How To Play O ce Pools If You Must Maximizing Expected Gain In Tournament Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
The increasing attention paid in recent years to the annual NCAA men s basketball tour nament seems due at least in part to the proliferation of o ce pools which follow tournament outcomes Such pools typically assign a point value to each game in the tournament the winner of the pool is then the person who amasses the most points Picking the winner of each indi vidual game can be done using a variety of strategies but nding one that is well documented performs well and is relatively easy to use is often di cult This paper presents such a method where the primary goal is maximizing expected point total hence winnings for a given scoring system The method employs Monte Carlo simulation and makes use of predicted win prob abilities determined using external information concerning the relative strengths of the teams as well as the point spreads available at the start of the tournament for the rst round games After investigating our approach for a small four team tournament where exact calculations are possible we use Monte Carlo methods to expand to teams illustrating with data from the NCAA men s basketball tournament
منابع مشابه
Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools
Every fall, millions of Americans enter betting pools to pick winners of the weekly NFL football games. In the spring, NCAA tournament basketball pools are even more popular. In both cases, teams that are popularly perceived as “favorites” gain a disproportionate share of entries. In large pools there can be a significant advantage to picking upsets that differentiate your picks from the crowd....
متن کاملO-35: How Can You Decrease the Complicationof Ovarian Diathermy in Polycystic OvarianSyndrome
متن کامل
Match madness: Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament
Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The current work examines how individuals make predictions for one of the most popular forms of betting, tournament pools, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher-s...
متن کاملقانون طلایی تدارک حمایت از دانش آموزان با نیازهای ویژه در کلاسهای فراگیر: از دیگران آنطور حمایت کنید که دوست دارید از شما حمایت کنند
Consider for a moment that the school system paid someone to be with you supporting you 8 hours a day, 5 days a week. Now, imagine that you had no say over who that support person was or how she or he supported you. Or imagine that someone regularly stopped into your place of employment to provide you with one-on-one support. This person was present for all your interactions, escorted you to th...
متن کاملMatch Madness: Probability Matching in Prediction of the NCAA Basketball Tournament
Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. This study examines how individuals make predictions for tournament pools, one of the most popular forms of betting, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher seeded ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2011